Rasmussen is forecasting D+3/R+6 turnout as of October 2012. Gallop is more conservative at R+3. I don’t have the D forecast from Gallop, however.
Rasmussen could be wrong because, well, we’ve never had R+6 for as long as anyone has been polling. There are some guesses that perhaps in the 1920s Republican (including Independents who self-identify as Republican) turnout was that high or maybe not even then. But then again, Rasmussen has been the most accurate since 2004. If the folks there are correct, Obama and Democrats are in for a real rough night.
I have been trying to write a post about the election and it just comes out jumbled. So I decided to keep this one short and to the point. I think Rasmussen might be conservative on R+6. It’s a gut feeling because I’ve never seen so many Republicans completely livid for so long. I was angry that the entirety of the right side of the political spectrum was shut out of the debate and they didn’t even bother trying to toss us a bone; all the while mocking us and hurling insults. It reminded me of Junior High School, not adults in public service. The time period from 2009 through the end of 2010 was the nastiest and most contentious I have ever seen the political atmosphere. But I got burned out on being angry about it. It’s just one of those things that only time and the next election can solve; so it’s wasted energy.
I will be headed out to my polling place sometime this afternoon. I am looking forward to voting against Obama. It is likely only symbolic as New York’s electoral votes are expected to go to his way. But it will allow me to vent some of the frustration that I just put away until I could do something about the problem the only way I can.
In the evening, I will be watching the returns with my family. It sounds boring, I know. But I want to put this entire nightmare of bad economics and bad politics in the rear view mirror, and say good-bye to it forever. Saying adios to Obama is just the first step in that process, I realize. There are still many more hurdles to go; but it has to start somewhere. I can’t think of a better place for it begin than with the guy in that big white house who was supposed to be everyone’s President, but managed to forget that, I’m sure, the sometimes annoying and nagging concept of consent of the governed includes opposition as well. We had to keep giving them stuff to keep them happy, and when the tables turned, we didn’t even get any respect.