So Obama won reelection by a comfortable margin. I am already seeing the fingers pointing in every which direction about whom is responsible for Romney’s loss. Some nut on Facebook thinks Romney would have won OH if not for Gary Johnson, forgetting that it doesn’t matter. Romney pulled off a flip of only 2 states Obama won in 2008; decisively in only one of them. He still can’t win without CO, FL, and VA. He might be able to pull off the latter two, but not the former. He’s done. It’s over. That is something that only Romney is responsible for, although all the promoting and arm twisting on the part of Party leadership on Romney’s behalf during the primaries is where the largest mistakes were made IMO. I will do another post on that later that will include a strategy for dealing with what has happened tonight. If you want to get a head start on what I will be discussing, checkout the Tenth Amendment Center website, and a great book to read is Nullification by Tom Woods.
They say that every cloud has a silver lining; and I found one. The market for the election on Intrade has been indicating that Obama would win. Silly me; I ignored it and listened to what I wanted to hear. Rasmussen was indeed wrong – there wasn’t an R+6 turnout. I heard reports that exit polls indicate that evangelical turnout was down by 7 points. I don’t know if that is true, but I don’t think it can entirely explain what happened. Perhaps next time the pollsters should recall the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, just skip to the prediction markets and then let us know what people are saying.