Becky Hargrove left me a comment on my last post about the audaciousness of Trump supporters pointing me to a commenter on The Money Illusion asking what the position of each presidential candidate is on monetary policy.

I have to say that on the basis of verbatim, I do not know the position on monetary policy for any candidate except for Rick Perry. None of them have, and I doubt that any of them would, come out and say something as bold as they would be sure to print lots of money, or at least enough money. Just think about the complicated bunch people they are asking to vote for them in general, with quite a fraction of them distracted by political scapegoats.

Despite the absence of overt discussion of monetary policy, a few of them have provided subtle clues about what their positions might be, or rather what their policies might be whether they are consciously aware of them or not.

Jeb Bush: He says his goal is 4% growth per year. He has heading up his economic team, however, two unapologetic hawks, Hubbard and Warsh. Bush has also stated that he will get the 4% growth via supply side reform and said that printed money isn’t the way to do it. Though supply side reform is good and much needed, it will not produce 4% growth in an atmosphere of tight money. More hawkish hawks than the current lot at the Fed + supply side reform = worse than more of the same.

Marco Rubio: Ramesh Ponnuru was a major player in writing Rubio’s tax plan. One market monetarist adviser on his economic team is certainly more than any of the others have, and leads to at least some doubt that tight money or problems of insularity at the Fed would continue. But it’s still a question mark in my mind.

Donald Trump: Larry Kudlow in a commentary accused Trump of having policies of devaluation. He didn’t provide any reference on that point and I haven’t been able to independently verify it. I know that Trump criticized the PBoC for devaluation, accusing China of currency wars. So there’s a chance that we would end up with more of the same lot on the Fed at best. Having good monetary policy in a Trump administration is probably a longshot.

Rick Perry: Unless he has changed his position from 2011 which was overtly against QE, we would probably end up with people like George, Lacker and Plosser making monetary policy.

The rest, I have no information to even speculate what their positions and/or policies regarding macro might be.

Advertisements