In her speech announcing the opening of a formal impeachment inquiry against President Trump, Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi said something about the impetus for such not being for the sake of political expedience, but for the sake of the integrity of the Office.

Though, I am not quite so sure of the absence of political expedience because ever since Trump became President, Congressional Democrats have been thoroughly consumed looking for a reason to do it. And it does look a bit like Pelosi put the cart before the horse in making her announcement, having neither evidence of the crime for which Trump is accused of committing in hand, nor having held a successful vote on opening the inquiry on the House floor pursuant to House rules in somewhat of an over step beyond her authority as Speaker. She apparently would like us all to look past all of this in the name of integrity. How quaint.

But this doesn’t mean that I blame either Pelosi or Congressional Democrats for the situation in which Trump finds himself. When your political opponents make no secret of their intentions to hang you from the tallest tree and are openly looking for a reason to do it, it is utter stupidity to hand them the measure of rope to do it with – and even stick out your neck with a huge red bow tied around it.

His inability to stay out of easily preventable trouble speaks volumes about whether an impeachment is needed. I agree with Pelosi that national security is at issue here, but only because stupid is as stupid does. From the beginning of his Presidency, I waited tentatively for Trump to become the President I hoped he would be. Until late last year when he fired nearly everyone who was actively attempting to save him (and everyone else) from himself, Kelly and Mattis included, I thought he was doing a decent job. And now, his unmasked and naked impulsiveness and utter stupidity is pointing at a question of stability. An unstable, impulsive POTUS is certainly a scary proposition.He’

In the past, I’ve wanted to see the evidence regarding accusations that have been lobbed his way. I have looked at what has come out, and if the circumstances were different, I’d say that it looks sort of flimsy because what the House had was a letter from the DNI that starts off framed as an active attempt to solicit foreign interference in the 2020 election.

In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election. This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the Presidents main domestic political rivals.

A few paragraphs down from that, it goes into some detail about the accusations made, and comparing it to the transcript of the call in question, it’s my judgement that is not what it was. In the call, Trump asked about the DNC servers involved in the 2016 investigation that Crowdstrike has in Ukraine, he asked who in Ukraine was behind the information that lead to Comey/Muller investigation of the 2016 election. He asked about corruption at the Ukrainian Embassy. He said he heard that Biden was bragging that he had the prosecutor who was investigating his son fired and wanted to know what the former Ambassador from Ukraine had to do with that. He did not ask for Biden’s son to be investigated.

I don’t know what the hell Trump was doing on that call. Presidents have the other means of getting the information they need. I don’t think Trump knows what the hell he was doing on that call, other than classic Trump lampshade on the head party guest complaining, rambling and vindictiveness that he does at rallies. I suppose life to him is a huge rally and there isn’t anything else that matters.

If Trump’s stability were not in question, I would really want to know what Biden did. Did he abuse his office as VP and work connections to keep his son who is likely not even remotely qualified to sit as board member of a national energy company out of trouble? But because Trump is so damned stupid and tactless, the world may never get around to asking how and why Biden’s son was elevated to such a position and thus we will never know.

PS: The only reason I care about the spiking of the FF rate that began in March 2019, happened again in July and September, is because it is one more piece of evidence that excess demand for reserves isn’t being accommodated, and money is too tight. We were told that these guys had the whole operational thing around IoER figured out, and they could dispense with the comparatively huge balance sheet in a “normalization” move, as much as they wanted. But I think that in order to exert control over something, such as the FF rate, one actually has to have control over it instead of the sort of mirage of control that exists something around the margin of error of monetary equilibrium. The reality that nominal interest rates reflect something rather than cause something is apparent in the spikes of nominal short rates. What it represents to me is that we’re perilously close to having an unhappy tight money accident and the central bankers’ propensity to target short nominal rates outside of their understanding rather than the inflation rate is really dangerous.